Complexity Made Simple: Decision Models You Can Build on a Single Notepad

There’s a strange thing that happens when people face difficult decisions: some open Excel, others open a bottle of wine, and a bold few open both. But here’s the truth nobody tells you — most decisions don’t need spreadsheets, algorithms, or a PhD in “Trying to Figure Life Out.” They need a pen, a notepad, and the kind of brutal honesty that only arrives when you’re doodling circles instead of answering emails.

Decision models sound intimidating, like something invented by a consultant who bills by the acronym. Yet the best ones — the really useful ones — are simple enough to sketch on paper during a boring meeting or while waiting for your coffee to cool down from lava temperature. Let’s break them down.

1. The Two-Column Reality Check

Ah yes, the classic: Pros vs. Cons. It looks childish, but it has survived for centuries because it works. Humans overcomplicate everything — relationships, career moves, whether to buy that gadget you’ll use twice then hide in a drawer. But when you put pros and cons next to each other, your brain stops dramatizing and starts prioritizing.

Try it once. You’ll realize half your decisions are just “Do I really want to deal with this?” disguised as something deeper.

2. The 10–10–10 Method

Ask three questions:

  • How will I feel about this decision in 10 minutes?

  • In 10 months?

  • In 10 years?

This hack forces you to zoom out instead of spiraling in. Suddenly, saying no to a project doesn’t feel like a career-ending betrayal. Buying a $6 latte five times a week does look suspicious, though.

3. The Box Method (a.k.a. Eisenhower’s Revenge)

Draw a big square. Divide it into four. Label the quadrants:

  • Urgent + Important

  • Urgent + Not Important

  • Not Urgent + Important

  • Not Urgent + Not Important

Then drop your tasks into the right squares. The magic? You’ll notice how many “urgent” things aren’t actually important — they just shout loudly.

Right about here in the article is a good place to remind you that decision models exist everywhere — even in games.
And speaking of games, even 22 Bet, one of the popular options for players looking for a trustworthy betting site, reminds users to make rational choices rather than emotional bets.
It’s proof that clear thinking works everywhere — from big decisions to small wagers.

4. The “One Sentence” Method

If you can’t summarize the decision in one sentence, you don’t understand it yet.

Try it:
“Should I move to another country for this job?”
“Should I buy this car I definitely can’t afford but my heart wants?”
“Should I start waking up early even though my soul rejects the concept?”

If the sentence is confusing, the decision will be too. Simplify the sentence, and the answer often reveals itself.

5. The “If Tomorrow Was a Blank Page” Test

Forget the past. Pretend tomorrow is brand new. Would you still choose this?

This method exposes everything we cling to out of habit — jobs, routines, even people. If you wouldn’t add it to your life again today, maybe it shouldn’t stay tomorrow.

6. The 5-Minute Model

Set a timer. Write every possible option, even the absurd ones:

  • Quit everything and open a bakery.

  • Say yes.

  • Say no.

  • Pretend you never saw the email.

  • Move to the mountains and become a hermit.

When the clock stops, circle only the realistic options. Somehow, the brain behaves better under time pressure — like a student finishing an exam with 30 seconds left.

Paper Still Wins

In a world where apps want to manage your focus, schedule your emotions, and track your every heartbeat, the humble notepad remains undefeated. No logins. No notifications. No updates. Just you, your messy handwriting, and the truth.

Complexity is overrated. Decisions don’t get better when you give them more filters; they get better when you give them more clarity. So next time you face a crossroads, skip the spreadsheets. Grab a pen. Grab a page.

Your future self will thank you — probably in notes scribbled on the next page.

Leave a Comment

18 + ten =